Gold at 4,195 resistance — breakout continues or pull back to 4,144? | XAUUSD Jul 3

Hi, I'm Daniel, a working prop trader, and today let's look at gold's big picture. Bias stays bullish, so let's check if the trend reversal conditions are met. That matters, and just as expected, yesterday the uptrend kept pushing higher.

We've now confirmed a move of about 717 pips higher from that entry level. This trend structure still hasn't broken, and the setup remains firmly in play. That decision comes from the pullback forming and a clear shift in bias here.

Trading with clear criteria matters, so let's dig into the analysis. So let's go ahead and keep moving right into the detailed breakdown from here. Gold's daily candle from yesterday closed with a confirmed bearish setup here.

With that daily bearish signal confirmed, it defines the recent major low here. This bearish doji candle here — we're now breaking out above it to the upside. It looks like a successful breakout, and meanwhile the candle just before yesterday's, this one too.

Same story here, a doji, and this one's an extra-large-sized doji forming right there. One bearish scenario worth considering plays out within about five trading days from here. Price could return within a few days to the doji that defined this sideways range.

That kind of pullback is a scenario we really need to keep in mind too. If a clear reversal pattern forms on the shorter timeframe, this level here We need a strategy that also accounts for price returning to this doji line. That's the situation here.

On the flip side, when these doji candles line up back to back and eventually stall. A market where bulls seize control means the buyers show clear, obvious strength. A single decisive show of strength becomes unlikely here, and the price gets sold.

At these easy points, we're forced to aggressively short here. That's the shape I expect, so we'd watch for a pullback breakout. Right, the recent high and the pullback levels sitting above.

When it breaks out, the long stop-loss orders naturally get triggered there. It rallies by sweeping those orders, which is why we see this play out. In this case, since today is Friday, once the new week opens up here.

bullish momentum keeps building, and price should stay easy to push higher here. I'm watching to see whether conditions actually flip into that kind of setup here. Now let's look at the 1H timeframe and go over yesterday's action.

The Trading Lab stream formed this red candle with a long lower wick here. I walked through the analysis around here, and now on YouTube I'll cover it. But from here, I'll break it down piece by piece for you.

So first, let's talk about the bias. As you can clearly see, yesterday gave us this. We'd just formed a strong bullish swing, so first off, this move here.

Looking at the backdrop, we were holding a bullish bias all the way up to here. Looking at each step closely, first this bullish swing higher right here. The strength here really catches the eye with a clear reversal candle.

It formed, then rallied — another reversal candle, plus a sideways range. You could go long from here, then a doji reversal candle forms. Since it's forming, you could enter on this breakout too.

Where you enter and how you read it, that part's really fine. In both cases, it was a clean, easy setup to get in long on a bullish move. Looking at that first small upswing, the demand builds up gradually here.

These candles size up, and there's barely any overlap between them. Each candle closed with its high and its close sitting very close together. So you can see buyers stayed firmly in control the whole way up.

If you break this rally down closely, you'll see it's actually made up of two separate upswings. On this first pullback, textbook theory says price should carve out a small sideways range here. So naturally, price should drift back to retest that doji it had formed.

The bearish leg was too weak to even retest that level. Just a shallow pullback, then closing with a big bullish candle. In this setup, a bearish move entered at a half-baked level starts to panic.

You're forced to stop out, so as I said at the start, the upside stays in play. With momentum this strong, I decided we should keep a bullish bias here. And after that first reversal, we get the initial pullback forming just like this here.

This reversal here is a really solid point, and first we see a small recent low. We see a trendline, and bears fire off shorts here. In that case, stops sit right near this recent high.

So that's how we set this stop-loss cluster up here. Price pushes up in this shape, so we go ahead and set up our long here. This gray zone marks the ideal spot to enter our long here.

As I've explained many times to our community members, spots like this make good long entries, and these levels stay in focus later That's what I explain, and it really acts as a level. On the other hand, this reversal at that first level cut through the prior downside momentum. It was fairly strong, but at levels like that, the second test is what usually matters.

That's the usual case here, the same level acting as a key pivot. We're seeing price action retest and confirm that level once again. You can see price tapped that same low twice, so it's working nicely.

Structurally this reversal pattern is exactly the same as a classic double bottom. Once that clean pattern completes and the setup confirms, price pushes higher. It builds a sideways range, but for now we've confirmed this level here.

For that zone, at the time of the earlier signal we were right around here on the 5-minute chart. We saw a rising wedge forming, so first a pullback toward the wedge's origin That kind of adjustment would've been the natural scenario That was my read, but instead it flipped and pushed higher from there This is the line that anchored the wedge we drew right here, forming this shape Price broke out briefly, then got pulled back by the key line, and the lows here Higher lows and higher highs, so that's a clear buy signal That's the idea, then it

tries to reverse again, but the bear wave's momentum is very weak, no follow-through, just a small doji forming here After forming that, this candle becomes an outside bar, a doji reversal That formed an outside bar, an engulfing candle, so if it breaks the high Textbook play is to follow that upside breakout You could have set up a long entry right at this point Right as the data dropped, price spiked sharply higher After that came a follow-through

candle, right on scenario This gave us a 717-pip move to the upside, and this is exactly the kind of structure where price pushes higher and the rally really starts to build After the wedge formed, price climbed on shallow pullbacks First, the key thing to remember, and I've explained this many times in the community A rising wedge usually signals a shift into a downtrend. As a signal, it doesn't really carry much weight here, if anything. Momentum is strong, and the swings show up clearly here.

Three-push patterns often lead to a reversal. That's how I read it, so this isn't a real trend reversal move. So our community members already understood that clearly.

After that it pushed higher, and recently it built an IOI pattern, then once again formed a pullback, and the uptrend is still clearly continuing here. Now in today's community breakdown, let me walk through three key points. Let me talk about how to handle a strong uptrend like the one we're seeing.

When targeting pullback buys, watch which price levels to react to price action, and of course we look at both sides too We need to consider both angles as momentum builds again fast If it pulls back and drops, watch which key levels to flip bias As I said at the start, here are the trend-reversal conditions I also gave a quick rundown for the members who recently joined our community Today the uptrend structure is still fully intact So gold stays bullish here