Gold at 4,463 Resistance — Does the Downtrend Extend or Reverse? | XAUUSD Jun 3

Hi, I'm Daniel, an 8-year professional prop trader helping beginners learn to trade FX profitably in our Trading Lab community. I run the Trading Lab. Check the video description for details.

Today we're diving into gold technical analysis. I'll be sharing some of what I posted inside the Trading Lab community. Right now I have the one hour chart up, so let's look at the short term view.

The day before, I warned Trading Lab members to watch for a potential reversal from that level. It has since shifted into a downtrend and that momentum is still continuing right now, just as Daniel shared early inside Trading Lab. So let's keep our bias firmly bearish.

Now, as usual, we'll go through the detailed breakdown starting from the cooldown phase. Let's move on. For gold, yesterday's cooldown phase was the key starting point.

Right here, this is the level we're watching. The most recent candles have confirmed a long upper wick rejection pin bar signal on the daily chart. Yesterday I mentioned that price has been moving in a sideways range based on these two reference candles, and the most recent candle Inside this range, a bearish consolidation candle has confirmed and closed within the prior candle's body.

Yesterday's analysis flagged an early-stage contraction in volatility, and we discussed what to expect once that compression was confirmed. We talked about how a clear directional move was likely to emerge, and looking at the chart relatively, the bearish doji compared to the bullish doji here So we can say that the volatility contraction confirmed our scenario was playing out exactly as expected. So going forward, we're anticipating a shift into breakout mode on the daily chart, though for now the recent candles still haven't broken out yet.

We'll be watching closely to see which direction today's daily candle breaks out once it closes and confirms. That covers the cooling phase. Now let's move on and take a look at the hourly support levels.

For the hourly support levels, I'll be walking through the analysis that was shared inside Trading Lab yesterday. The full breakdown is exclusive to Trading Lab members, so I can't share everything here, but today I'll cover four key points for you. First, point one: the Tokyo session showed a clean, sustained uptrend throughout the entire session timeframe.

The pullbacks were very shallow, with price thrusting upward in one direction — a clean, complete uptrend that continued throughout the session. However, if we consider the cooling momentum, a bearish Doji candlestick has formed, as I mentioned earlier, right near the high of the prior bearish daily candle. So for today, I'd recommend setting aside any unnecessary bias and approaching the London session with a fresh, open perspective.

In Trading Lab, I explained that traders should watch for a potential reversal starting from the London session. Now, the third key point: during the Tokyo session, price pushed higher in a shallow pullback uptrend. This means bulls were very likely aggressively entering long positions during that Tokyo session move.

Inside the market, bull stop-loss orders from those long positions are stacked up as sell orders, so any reversal from here could trigger a sharp move down. Moves in that direction tend to follow through with significant momentum, and I covered that analysis in detail for our Trading Lab community members. From the previous day's recap, we saw a series of consolidations and a downtrend continuing from the Tokyo session close through to the London session close.

I gave a detailed breakdown of the price action leading up to that reversal, and highlighted the exact point where a buy setup was forming. The low was raised and the high broke out upward, confirming a shift into an uptrend. So that has been my breakdown of how the market played out during Monday's trading session.

So let's see what actually happened after that — following the subsequent price action, we can see that the market reversed right from that high point after the stream began. This area is likely where the New York session close price action played out, with the market dropping roughly 62 dollars, which works out to about 628 pips of total decline. The market played out exactly as our scenario predicted, reversing just as Daniel suggested, and now a clear downtrend continues.

Today's Trading Lab members-only stream covers two key technical points on the current gold market setup. I provided a detailed breakdown of recent price action and the latest market moves for gold. As always, I reviewed the previous day's market price action, focusing on the shift to a downtrend, walking through each individual candlestick move in detail.

Based on my analysis, today the downtrend remains intact and active, so my current market bias is firmly to the downside. That wraps up today's gold market analysis from Daniel.