Gold holds uptrend — new pullback buy at 4,567 or slip to 4,541? | XAUUSD Aug 21

Hey everyone, this is Daniel, your energetic prop trader. Gold is bullish today. After the last pullback dropped about 480 pips down to the top of the daily range, price returned to the uptrend exactly as our scenario laid out.

From the buy setup forming up to the most recent high, gold has climbed roughly 1170 pips. It's still holding the uptrend right now, and we're seeing a time-based consolidation on those recent doji candles as price cools off. The key question is whether a fresh pullback-buying entry point forms after that breakout.

I walked through whether gold can carve out this pullback and keep the uptrend running, so keep a close eye on how it develops from here. Alright, let's dive straight into the daily chart and break it down in detail. On gold, yesterday's daily candle closed as a bearish pin bar, so let's take a closer look at what that's telling us.

As I mentioned in yesterday's video, the scenario I laid out on the daily was this: since the most recent candle printed as a large bullish candle, price broke out to the upside exactly as planned, sweeping the bearish stop loss orders sitting above this candle and that candle, and successfully clearing the top of the range. From these moves, the daily flipped to a bullish bias, and I explained that if today's daily candle closes as a breakout-pullback move against this sideways range, then even at the daily level we'd have a valid setup to go long, entering with a proper pullback entry off that breakout.

And looking at how yesterday's daily candle actually formed, just as I mentioned at the start, it printed a bearish pin bar, and it successfully tested the upper boundary of this recent sideways range right here. So the more reasonable read here is that the breakout-pullback move has now fully completed. So on the daily chart, a long entry was already justified here — you could have entered once the previous daily candle closed, or the moment price broke out above that prior day's high.

On the daily chart, this move keeps our bias to the upside for now. But if today's daily candle happens to close as an inside bar relative to yesterday's, then instead of a breakout pullback, we might treat it as a doji. And if that doji then breaks out to the downside, we'd naturally have to flip our bias bearish.

That said, right now this is playing out as an ideal setup, with a clean range breakout followed by a successful breakout pullback. So on the daily chart, my base case for today is a bullish bias, and that's the view I'm leaning on right now. Now let's drop down a timeframe and take a look at the 1H chart.

This red line marks where the candlestick was at the time of yesterday's session for our community members. Let me walk you through the key points of what I explained here, keeping it focused as I go on YouTube. First, I explained that at the time of recording we were in a correction phase after a very strong rally, so on the short-term timeframe the bias was pointing to the downside.

And I explained that, as of right now, the bullish waves still haven't managed to recover the kind of upside momentum they had before. So we're still in a corrective phase, which keeps my short-term bias to the downside, but in the community I also walked through exactly which key levels could flip this back into an uptrend. I flagged four levels in total.

The first is the low printed during the Tokyo session, and the second is the top of the daily range — that grey zone I marked earlier is exactly where the daily range sits, so keep an eye on these points. Then there's the FVG formed inside the recent uptrend, plus the prior day's low. My point in the walkthrough was this: if we see a bullish price action confirmation at these spots, we flip our bias right away and start hunting for long entries rather than waiting around for more evidence.

And inside the community I break down the exact price action behind these calls, walking you through the whole read step by step. This is the price action that led me to read it as a continued correction, still hunting for a long entry. And that read really hinges on the strong bullish swing that formed the day before.

First we formed a reversal low here, then built the bullish swing. Right at the top of the recent trading range, which also lined up with the upper channel line, we printed a bearish doji. Then the breakout candle came through as a strong trend candle, a big bullish bar that swept out the stops from the bears who jumped in too early here.

This bullish swing ran all the way up to the candle just before this long-lower-wick bullish bar, and right here you can see it stalled out, forming a sideways range built off these two candles as its base. When the downside breakout failed and turned into a false breakout, that triggered a second bullish swing higher, and after that we got a sell setup that faded back and pulled price right back down into the range — that was the picture up to the time of this broadcast.

Given that whole backdrop, the base case was really to look for pullback buying, and I explained that if we got a bullish price action confirmation at one of those key levels, that's where we'd step in and go long on gold. So after that broadcast, how did gold actually move? Just as I expected, the pullback kept extending lower, and it pulled right back into those key levels I flagged earlier — the daily low and the top of the daily range.

Right here we get a clean buy setup forming. And if you measure the depth of this correction from the moment I went live, gold dropped 48 dollars, which works out to 480 pips lower. From that low where the buy setup formed all the way up to the recent high, this move played out exactly as scripted too, rallying 117 dollars, a full 1170 pips higher.

This time the move went completely according to plan, and I'd say we nailed it perfectly, from the correction all the way through the return into the uptrend, exactly as I called it. For today's community-only breakdown, as always I've laid out both the bullish scenario and the bearish scenario, staying flexible on direction, and I'm walking you through everything using these three key points. A clear uptrend is still in play, so I stay bullish, watching this time-based pause after the strong rally.

On pullbacks and at key levels, I'm actively looking for longs. Around these three points I've laid out today's scenario, plus a review of how yesterday's price action played out. And that wraps up today's gold update.