Gold bouncing off support — corrective pop or reversal to 4,023? | XAUUSD Jun 24

Hey, this is Daniel, your energetic prop trader. Gold's big picture stays in a downtrend. I'm watching 4091 as the key level for any shift in bias.

Yesterday played out exactly per the bearish scenario I shared with the community. Using the prior day's low as the pivot, price built a sideways range, then broke out to the downside. Price dropped roughly 947 pips down to the recent low, then more recently it formed a doji right at support and has been bouncing back up from there.

A lot of you are probably unsure whether this is just a corrective bounce, or actually the first upswing of a real trend reversal here. As I flagged first, my bias is to the downside, so today I'll walk you through the full reasoning behind that. So as always, let me walk you through the daily chart in detail.

On gold, yesterday's daily candle closed as a large bearish candle, confirming the downside pressure. As I mentioned in yesterday's video, the key focus is right here: whether price can break out below the low of this recent bearish candle to the downside. If this breakout actually plays out, the odds rise sharply that price comes back to test this much bigger low here.

For example, I was saying a decline targeting somewhere around the 4023 dollar area would become much easier to develop. Yesterday this big bearish candle broke firmly below that low, and today as well, right from the open, price has barely tested the highs and has been steadily grinding lower throughout the session. So the daily chart is playing out exactly as our scenario laid out, and just because we spot what looks like a reversal candle, this is not a situation where you should be fading the move with a counter-trend long on the 1H.

So now let me walk you through this across the timeframes on the 1H chart. The previous day, my community session ran right around this red-line zone, where this bearish doji candle formed. I can't go into the full breakdown here on video, but today I'll still cover a few of the key points for you.

Let me narrow it down and walk you through what I was actually pointing out. The first thing I was watching closely was this key zone right here. The recent flow suggested a high chance of pushing one more low, sweeping out the stop losses of the buyers who bought into this key zone, so the broader bias here was clearly tilted to the downside.

That's what I was explaining, and the key focus here was the previous day's high. I think it was right around this level, and whether price can break out above it is one of the key benchmarks for shifting our overall bias here. If that breakout actually plays out, then naturally we'd flip our view and treat the short-term picture as having turned into a clear uptrend here.

On the flip side, if that breakout fails and price gets rejected here, then we can comfortably keep holding the view that this downtrend simply carries on lower. Inside the community I walked members through exactly that, laying out today's bias and the trading strategy I'm running with. I also walk back through the price action, breaking down exactly how this current downtrend has been forming step by step.

The first thing catching my eye is this channel line, and since price ultimately broke out to the downside, we can conclude this was actually a bear flag setup. The very first candle I was watching closely was this one right here. For the movement inside this channel, we can draw a line by connecting this candle with this one here, and since the low has ticked up for now, that tells us a strong bullish move came in.

So with these two points, plus the original setup here, by connecting these two we get the current channel we're working with. We can draw it off this high here, and after forming the substitute line, price prints a clear reversal candle and tries to flip back to the downside. That follow-through didn't continue, so we formed another setup here, and the real question as of Tuesday was whether price could break above this upper channel line or not.

In the end, price couldn't push above that upper line, so it reversed and slipped into a flat sideways range here. It built a clear sell setup first, then reversed to the downside, and at that point it was already breaking below the lower support level here. Even without that earlier move, the odds of the downtrend continuing here were clearly high.

From a textbook standpoint, if a bear flag forms here, the most recent downside swing would likely extend. The odds of a measured move keep rising, and if that's the case, things could continue right along here. If price breaks out lower and the downtrend keeps going, the 4023 area lines up perfectly with that measured move target too.

So price stalls out at a really logical spot, which makes mapping out those support levels a lot easier to plan ahead. Looking back at yesterday's action, after price printed a doji candle, it broke out cleanly to the upside from there. After that, price tried to build another upward swing, but it printed a bearish doji here and broke straight down through support.

After showing a pullback-style move, price has been sliding lower again, and through this whole sequence, at the very least The pullback after this breakout was a clean, easy-to-read entry point, so you could have caught this entire move down from here. Like this, we walked through each candle one by one, and inside the community I also broke down the full scenario in detail. So how did the market actually play out?

If we count from the high of this doji candle right here, then after I posted the broadcast, price moved like this. Let me drop a magnet on here so we can track this move. As I mentioned at the start, the move played out exactly to scenario, delivering roughly a 94 dollar range, which converts to 947 pips.

So let me also walk you through what today's breakdown for our community will actually cover. As I mentioned earlier, the real question is whether this current upswing is the first leg of a new uptrend. Or whether it's simply a move to set a lower swing high within the downtrend — this is where opinions genuinely split.

So I walked you through the criteria I use for that judgment, and even in a situation like this where direction is unclear, You can still pin down high-probability entry points, so today I'm also breaking down the London session strategy for our community members. So as I mentioned at the very start, gold remains firmly in its downtrend, and that wraps up today's full XAUUSD breakdown for you all.