Gold at the crossroads: hold 4,140 support or flip bearish to 4,121? | XAUUSD Jun 22

Hey everyone, I'm Daniel, an 8-year veteran prop trader. Even if you're new to trading, I run the FX community Trading Lab to help you profit. For the full details, please check the description below this video.

Today I'll cover gold's technical analysis we shared in our community. I'll also bring in some of what we discussed there as we go. We're on the 1H chart now, starting with the short-term view as always.

As I explained earlier to our community, we're currently leading ahead. My bias stays bullish here, and right after the open we saw a push to break the high. We've got a signal here, still bullish, and I'll walk you through it as usual.

Let's break it down from the daily candle with a full, detailed walkthrough. Gold's final daily candle last Friday closed as a long lower-wick inside bar. With this inside bar confirmed, we got a breakout below that doji's high here.

And then we got two consecutive bearish candles confirming the downside follow-through. Both the highs and the lows are stepping lower here, so we're clearly making lower highs and lower lows. So the next thing to watch on the daily is whether the bullish scenario plays out.

The likely scenario is a strong buy setup forming right here. From here, price lifts the lows and tries to flip into an uptrend reversal. That kind of move is the bullish scenario we've been mapping out here.

On the other hand, Bearish momentum stays strong, shown by these two follow-throughs So even with a bearish bias, we naturally need to map out our scenarios To do that, let's first connect this swing high here with this swing high and draw a descending trendline, then a parallel line right alongside it connecting that line to this low, and into last weekend the daily I explained how this bear channel is in focus right now Meanwhile, looking at this

doji here, we clearly see a support-resistance flip We're seeing that level respected, so this is the bearish scenario playing out The bear channel could widen, and this setup right here matters This zone we marked will likely stay in focus later Since it's likely, extend that same angle out to form a bear channel That widening is another bearish scenario we need to watch closely So which areas confirm the bullish scenario here? For the bearish scenario, here's how I personally judge whether it's valid.

For the bullish scenario, I'm watching whether price can hold above that key area. Whether buyers can defend it is really the key focus here. Right now the unconfirmed daily candle sits roughly around this size.

If we hold this candle size, the bullish scenario clearly stays on track. This setup becomes easier, while as for the bearish scenario on the other hand, What this would look like is a bearish wick that stays fairly small. If it forms a doji, or if price reverses afterward and leaves a bullish signal here.

If that happens, the downside pressure builds, and that's really today's pullback. Since we've broken above the recent high, this is just a small corrective bounce. That reading becomes easier to make, and naturally from there price tends to aim for this key level, favoring the bearish scenario That's how I see it, so on the daily this is the bearish case You need to keep both the bullish and the bearish view in mind here Let's drop down to a lower timeframe and walk through the 1H chart together now I posted the analysis for members right when this setup got confirmed earlier The detailed walkthrough I gave

the community stays as members-only content here so I can't get into all of it here on the video, but today I'll keep it focused and give you a quick rundown of the key points Let me walk you through part of what I was looking at, starting with the first point Last weekend, what I covered for the community was my directional bias, and recently We had a swing continuing in this shape, and a channel was forming here We had the line drawn, and worked

it around this bear channel We were tracking the trend, then the last candle overshot it We saw that move confirmed, almost a full marubozu candle, basically the first leg A textbook setup where it could easily act as a selling climax And inside that zone it bounced back up, clearly a strong demand signal That formed our buy setup, and right after this point the move kicked off I explained there was a strong chance of a reversal right there, and on

top of that, fresh ones too For community members who joined, this is a really important point to keep in mind I was making two points: a reversal and a trend change are separate issues, and a reversal isn't a reversal, and second, when price reverses straight out of a swing high or low I walked you through the five signs that confirm this setup And yesterday's price action fit that pattern perfectly here, well, not yesterday It was Friday's move,

so I said the odds of a reversal here were high I explained that, and the kind of price action that tends to follow a reversal Once a reversal is confirmed, the move that follows is closely tied to it So you can anticipate it, and after the reversal a trend shift can follow So when a trend shift happens, I'll walk you through what signals show up I'm explaining what signals confirm it, and toward the end I'll cover the setup too With momentum this

strong right now, there's a high chance we see a price-based pullback Either way, once this correction wraps up, we can set up our shorts If the trend flips, we just flip our bias too Given how long this downtrend has run, even if it reverses afterward and a full trend reversal, you'd see a classic two-leg move That setup is common, so just hopping in here works fine So there's really no need to force yourself looking for this spot here This is exactly

what I broke down for our community members. So how did the gold market actually play out after that broadcast? It reversed afterward, then pushed up to make new highs into the New York session.

This move is confirmed, so let's check this setup's lows. Counting from that level up to last Friday's NY session high. That's roughly a 61-dollar range, about 611 pips, and price climbed exactly as the scenario laid out.

So that's the shape we're after, and right now this still sits within a normal range correction. So in terms of price-range correction, this is playing out just as the scenario called for. So that's where we stand, and if we follow how the market plays out this week from here keep your bias flat and just follow whatever new price action develops but watch closely right at the Tokyo session open it formed a very strong rejection there, and now this looks like the pullback that followed After forming a reversal low, price keeps climbing right on plan That's the shape I'm expecting, so today let's dig into the breakdown for our community

members And by the end, I want to share what we're discussing in there So first, let's get into today's action right away, just like our community members As I explained, price is now trying to break the highs And I'll walk you through the whole price action that led me to this forecast As always, here's the recap from the weekend up to now for our community As I said earlier, the short-term bias here is still up That's the bias, and that wraps up today's gold update