Gold completed a ~$68 bullish swing but now sits at an awkward midpoint between $4,333 support and $4,369 resistance. Bearish momentum is still in play, and a pullback high before reversal is a real possibility. Daniel breaks down the key levels to watch and his short-term entry plan heading into the next session.
Gold at Decision Zone: $4,333 Support vs $4,369 Resistance — Jun 16
Key levels in this analysis
| Resistance | 4,369 |
|---|---|
| Support | 4,333 · 4,306 |
Summary
Video transcript
I'm Daniel, an 8-year pro prop trader helping beginners master trading. I run the FX Trading Lab community for traders. For full details, please check the description below this video.
Today I'll cover gold technical analysis shared in Trading Lab. I'll walk you through the analysis we discussed in Trading Lab. Right now I'm showing you the 1-hour chart as usual.
Around the time the NFP release was starting earlier, as shared with Trading Lab members, we're holding a bullish bias. however, I'll give a detailed breakdown shortly on the situation a downward reversal remains a very real possibility here please note that this bullish bias is only short term for now so with that bias covered, let's now jump straight into the analysis I'll walk through yesterday's gold price action in more detail. This pin bar has confirmed the setup with a clean rejection signal.
The rally continuing from this round's setup has been confirmed. A possible end to this swing is emerging as a key decision point. This marks the end of the current bullish swing, which carries two key implications.
The first is that the coming downward swing could be quite significant. Downward momentum is strong, and gold remains in a downtrend. So it could form a pullback high before reversing back downward again.
There's also another scenario to consider, which is a temporary push higher from here. A bullish scenario where the swing completes and price shifts higher overall. Especially the bullish momentum from this recent setup is worth noting.
So we can hold both bullish and bearish views right now. The most realistic scenario we should focus on right now is this demand zone. acting as the baseline candle for the horizontal range rather than a demand pin bar meaning it's most likely to function as a doji candle in this context so the key point here is that the downward momentum is still a factor as I mentioned in a previous stream, there is one thing to note here it's very likely this is a climax candle, which would confirm that the setup we discussed is now forming on the chart.
strong bearish momentum has been driving this drop lower Bulls and bears are clashing amid this strong momentum. This makes for a tricky, contested market environment overall. The bearish pin bar from yesterday may actually act as a doji candle instead.
Now let's drop down to the one-hour chart and take a closer look at the price action. The last Trading Lab stream covered this red line area and the pin bar. That was shared during the stream, and here is what was covered The five points I will cover are detailed content for Trading Lab So on YouTube I'll keep the explanation brief and simple.
For now, the situation at this point is basically unclear and undecided. Even on setups that look promising, we'd enter long at the initial level. And when price reaches our take profit levels, we should watch the momentum closely.
If momentum stays strong, part of the position should be swung This is because the opening gap from the prior close was quite wide. It opened higher, forming a clearly defined uptrend on the chart. Therefore, with such a clear trend, trade in the trend direction.
So you should hold long positions over the weekend if possible. I covered this topic and also reviewed last week's long setup. I explained reversal candles for entries, and Friday's market Looking back, there were several long entry points available.
These marked points are key levels on the chart. These are ideal entry points for long trades. This completes the full price action process for the long entry.
I cover this rationale in more detail exclusively for Trading Lab members. Next up, bear waves likely triggered short entries — I'll explain the candle and its effect. I've covered this effect multiple times inside Trading Lab as well.
We also have new Trading Lab members who have recently joined us. So I took this opportunity to explain some important key concepts again. The opening candle showed a bearish wave and trend reversal signal.
This part strongly suggests no reversal is being considered. Since this is core content, I'll hold off on explaining it in the video. I also covered recent price action and key support and resistance levels.
I was focused on this doji candle as my key reference point. If we see a sideways range followed by a pullback, I'll look to enter long. I had explained this in detail for Trading Lab members.
So, let me show you how the gold market actually moved. The pullback move against this horizontal range has now completed. You can see the pullback structure has now fully completed as planned.
Counting from that low to the recent high, it played out exactly as our scenario predicted. That move covered roughly 68 dollars, or about 686 pips to the upside, just as the scenario called for. Some of you may have traded that move successfully and locked in a nice profit.
Today's Trading Lab analysis content will cover the following topics. I'll explain where the cooling-off sits at an awkward midpoint. Based on those levels, here's my short-term strategy and entry plan.
I'll walk you through my personal entry positions on the 5-minute chart. I'll be sharing my trade history in Trading Lab today. For new members, you can see the key points I focus on. Today's broadcast covers gold market analysis for your reference. That's all for today.