Gold at $4,118 resistance — does the downtrend extend or bounce first? | XAUUSD Jun 11

Hi, I'm Daniel, an 8-year FX veteran and former prop trader. I run an FX community to help traders earn consistently. For more details, check the description below this video.

Today we'll dive into gold technical analysis again. I'll be sharing some insights from our Trading Lab community as well. I'm now showing the 1-hour chart for a short-term view.

regarding recent price action, let's review yesterday's scenario the downtrend has continued exactly as expected on the daily chart and I expect the bearish bias to continue — more detail on that shortly the setup shows a bounce pattern that makes a reversal easy to confirm the conditions are aligning nicely and zooming into the one hour chart we can see since breaking above this resistance line the rebound has continued but our target move is the end of this rebound so basically we are leaning bearish overall that covers the short term outlook briefly Now let me walk through the cooling candle analysis in detail.

For gold, the prior day's bearish candle confirmed as a large red daily candle. From a cooling structure, follow-through to the downside tends to develop. So that's the bearish scenario Daniel has been laying out — pressure to the downside.

with no clear target level nearby, this reversal candle looks incomplete I was saying a trend reversal here is unlikely to follow through Yesterday's cooling candle was a large bearish candle with almost no wicks Right now, bearish momentum has taken full control at the cooling level. We can see the chart has closed in a way that confirms this structure. A large bearish candle after a rally often signals a climax reversal.

So after this, buy setups at the cooling level are likely. So a rebound from that level is highly likely in this situation. We can confirm that a rebound move is now showing on the chart.

However, a full reversal from this downtrend still remains difficult right now. A half-formed reversal candle alone won't confirm a trend shift. Even if a buy setup forms and price bounces after this, we stay cautious.

This dip is just one corrective phase, and right now we're still in cooling territory. At this level, we're actively looking for short entry points. So that's how we're reading the setup for a long trade here.

On the shorter timeframes, this move should appear as a clear trend signal. This cooling phase and the trend itself are two completely separate things to keep in mind. How high does price need to climb to flip the trend?

The clearest swing high to watch is probably around this level here. So a rally up to around the 4590 dollar level would be needed. Given that context, trading at cooler levels ahead of a trend reversal is tough.

Holding positions through this setup is quite difficult. So keep overnight positions minimal in this market environment. Now let's look at the short-term price action in detail.

This is exclusive Trading Lab member content. I covered three key points in that session. Let me walk you through the current market situation right now.

The downtrend continuation looks natural given the context. So the primary trade setup we're targeting here is short entries. On the flip side, we'll also cover when to switch our directional bias.

Yesterday, the two key candles I was watching closely were these. These two candles form a clear descending trend line connecting their highs. Daniel was watching that trend line for a potential bias shift.

Watch for price breaking out above this trend line, then confirm the trend. After the reversal, then shift your bias — that's the key Only consider a breakout above the high before acting I was also discussing this at the end of my previous analysis session. Let's review how the market developed from the previous day, and that perfect sell from setup through the full downtrend continuation I covered all of this in detail in yesterday's analysis video.

So let me walk you through how the market actually moved yesterday. The prior day played out exactly as expected with the downtrend continuing. After that, we briefly saw an uptrend before turning back down.

We're testing a breakout of this trend line for a sell setup. A bearish scenario is confirmed, with price forming a top and pushing lower again. From the post-stream setup high, counting down from that level, looking at the recent low, that gives us a price range of about 162 dollars that works out to roughly 1625 pips dropping exactly as our scenario predicted The trend itself was very clear making our scenario spot on So that outcome felt quite natural.

Now let's dive into today's analysis. What I covered for Trading Lab members most recently was first as I mentioned, conditions favor a bounce. What specific entry points based on how price develops I covered our trading strategy in yesterday's session recap.

This is today's recap of price action from the Tokyo session open low. After the low, price rebounded within this tight range area. That wraps up today's full gold market analysis and breakdown. That's all for now.