Gold at 4,173 support — does the downtrend hold or reverse? | XAUUSD Jun 10

Hi, I'm Daniel, an 8-year veteran prop trader helping beginners learn to trade. I run an FX Trading Lab community for all traders. For more details, check the description box below this video.

Today I'll cover gold technical analysis from our Trading Lab I'll be sharing some of that analysis as we go through today's review. Currently showing a temporary shift — here's my short term view For today's outlook, I'm leaning bearish overall.

Exactly as I shared with Trading Lab members in yesterday's analysis, this sideways range broke down, followed by a clean pullback move and price has since returned to a downtrend from there the most recent high has not yet been broken to the upside so the bearish downtrend view remains in place for now let's briefly cover the short term directional outlook for gold as always, let's dive into the Tokyo session analysis in detail I also want to cover gold and the previous day's cooling off This was confirmed by that bearish candle.

The original night scenario What I had anticipated was the previous candle and that day's cooling momentum, yes, that cooling and closed with a long upper wick, showing relatively strong momentum using these two candles as the reference base for a horizontal range I had outlined a scenario where a double range formation could develop But looking closely at yesterday's bearish candle, the real body is very large. The prior candle closed as a complete outside bar, cooling the momentum on the close.

The underlying momentum here is turning out stronger than initially expected. This makes a further upside follow-through quite likely now. Right now we actually have a fairly large bearish candle body forming so it's trying to form a cooling pattern without retesting the level, showing strong momentum that confirms very strong bullish momentum in gold right now the nearest bearish candle low below is the key level to watch so the question is how far down the price could actually fall We use prior price action to find the measured move.

So we need to use that to plan our trades with such strong bullish momentum in play. With such strong momentum, a weak reversal candle won't flip the trend. So we should factor that momentum into our read of the market.

The reversal candle at that level also failed, so watch what comes next closely. A gradual shift into an uptrend after confirmation is what we're watching for. So we need to carefully watch and assess how this situation develops from here.

So let's keep a close eye on this as a key time-sensitive factor. I'll be covering this in detail for our Trading Lab members shortly. The details are exclusive to Trading Lab members, so here are four quick points.

Please keep that in mind as we now move into yesterday's analysis. In our Trading Lab community broadcast, we marked this red line level first. We use these two candles as our key reference candles for this analysis.

We are currently sitting inside a horizontal range, using these two candles as our base. with resistance above and support below boxing us in we are caught between these two key levels, in a sideways range At that point, Daniel had discussed what the daily candle was showing us on the chart.

which acted as the opposing candle, favoring an upside breakout and we discussed how a breakout was looking increasingly likely from there we were clearly in a sideways ranging market environment favoring a breakout wait for a full pullback before entering and then commit to a direction I explained that was not a situation to cut the trade, and highlighted one key candle Let me show you exactly which candle I was watching closely. This is a small Doji candle.

The full reasoning behind this candle is in the video. I can't fully address that here, but strong bull positioning was likely at play. That was the key point where heavy long positions were likely set.

When price breaks out above this level, stop-loss orders will naturally get triggered. So it tends to sweep a lot of sell orders and drive price strongly higher. That's why price tends to follow through strongly to the upside.

So if price breaks out clearly above this key level, I had mentioned we should switch our bias to bearish on that level. And then, let's review what happened in yesterday's market and the key levels we were watching. a double bottom variation forming, then a reversal into a sideways range focusing on this pattern formation and tracking the price action from the previous day so let's now review how yesterday's market actually played out this candle has become a complete sell setup signal and if price breaks out above this sideways range to the upside, we could see strong bullish follow-through continued on that key level the candle that broke below this low was

yesterday's this is the largest bearish candle, confirming key resistance after that, the bullish momentum remained quite strong and sustained after three straight hours of upside follow-through, price pulled back it set up another sell and carved out a clean downtrend structure this pullback level was also marked as a key resistance zone right at that point, the shallowest pullback within the range so downward momentum is likely to stay strong going

forward the downtrend is continuing cleanly and remains intact right now as for the price range on this setup, let me mention what we are currently looking at here from the recent high down to yesterday's Tokyo session low, the drop measures roughly 101 dollars that's a decline of roughly 1010 pips in total from the recent swing high However, on the chart, this sideways range looks more likely to break to the upside so that's the more likely outcome

at this point so I'll hold off on calling it a perfect scenario call, even though it played out well and today's Trading Lab stream covered the cooling setup I mentioned this market phase makes shifting your directional bias particularly difficult a half-formed reversal candle cannot confirm a trend change so what specific price levels should we watch for that? when we should shift our market bias going forward I'll cover this in detail for our Trading Lab members. The basic trend remains intact and is still continuing. So we're still bearish. That's all for today's gold update.