Gold at $4,268 support — reclaim $4,311 or extend the drop? | XAUUSD Jun 8

Hi, I'm Daniel, a prop trader with 8 years of experience, and I run an FX Trading Lab for beginners. For more details, check the description box below this video. Today we'll be doing technical analysis on gold.

As I mentioned in Trading Lab, the short-term outlook right now is bearish. Let me walk you through the details as always, starting with the current view. So as I shared with Trading Lab members, the current bias is bearish.

Now let's dive into the details starting with the cooldown analysis as always. I'd also like to walk through the analysis from last week. The daily gold candle from Friday has now confirmed and closed on the chart.

The bearish scenario I had mapped out appears to have played out. Let me walk you through what that scenario actually was and what I was watching before the holiday. A breakout to the upside would sweep the buy-side stop losses sitting above those recent bullish candles that had held their highs throughout the consolidation.

After calling for short-term bullish strength, price actually broke out above that consolidation zone, and we can confirm that move on the candlesticks too. We're seeing strong momentum form the first resistance level. This candle here can now be read as a pullback candle, confirming the prior bullish breakout structure.

These two candles have long been key reference points in gold, forming a sideways consolidation range centered on the daily candles. You can see price broke out above this level, pulled back, then broke out again for a second push higher. Friday's candle closed as a strong breakout confirmation after forming a solid pullback structure, so the base case is clearly bullish from here.

That said, we do need to keep in mind that conditions currently favor a bullish follow-through continuation. On the other hand, when we factor in recent volatility, we can draw a descending trend line like this, then apply a parallel line at the same angle down to the recent swing low. So with these lows being respected, this bear channel is something we should consider really important for cooling gold's momentum.

If price breaks out above this channel line, it signals a potential trend reversal or shift in momentum. This price range also serves as a key benchmark for measuring corrective moves, so if we see a pullback develop later today, that area becomes a natural setup zone to watch closely. A brief corrective pullback could still give way to renewed upside follow-through, so having a clear benchmark to guide short-term directional shifts is essential here.

This market environment calls for staying flexible and ready to shift your directional bias quickly. Now let's look at the one-hour timeframe. At the time of our last stream, marked by this red line, I shared analysis exclusively with Trading Lab members.

I had covered roughly four key points in that analysis, with more detailed explanations beyond that. That content is exclusive to Trading Lab members, so I'll focus on sharing just these four key points today. The first key point is this low-update reversal low that had just confirmed at the time of the previous stream — that was one critical key point.

The formation of this reversal low, combined with the break above the recent minor descending trendline, confirmed a bullish structural shift. So in Trading Lab, we had already shared that the short-term bias was bullish. Now, looking at a second key point, when we factor in the cooling structure, today shapes up as a long entry setup.

It makes more rational sense to think about it this way — and here's why: returning once more to the cooling structure that wasn't yet confirmed at the time of the last stream. This candle could be read as a buy setup, and it could also act as a catalyst to test the upper boundary of the trading range, so factoring in the cooling structure too, looking for long entries right now makes sense, since both the cooling structure and the current buy setup give price plenty of room to test higher in the short term.

Now, the third key point: we must also consider the opposite scenario and what it would mean for our trade. If the setup fails on the ninth attempt and no bullish engulfing pattern forms, then this reversal low level becomes our key reference point. This candle can be read as a doji, and we can trade around that doji level.

A downside breakout shifts our bias bearish, while an upside breakout turns it bullish. This false breakout followed by an upside move makes it a solid long setup to consider. So even if this bullish engulfing pattern fails to form, watching the doji candle's movement will still give you a clear trading signal.

We also have a recap from the previous session's market analysis, which Daniel covers every weekday — and the key point from last time was about the smaller This covers the structure where a downtrend continues even with consecutive indecision candles — a pretty common pattern you'll see regularly. Even without a clear setup, and even when price looks weak, it still couldn't push lower by triggering stop loss orders below the market. So let me walk you through what actually happened to the market after Daniel's last video was published and how price developed from there.

During the London session, we continued to see a short-term bullish trend with price gradually grinding higher. After that, price made an attempt to test the upper boundary of the consolidation range built during the Tokyo session. It then reversed and dropped sharply, shifting into a strong downward move.

Regarding the London session's total upward range, measuring from the setup low, the total rise came to around 46 dollars, or roughly 466 pips. On the one-hour chart it looks quite small visually, but in terms of actual price range, that was a solid intraday range, more than enough for a productive day trade session. For today's Trading Lab stream, as I mentioned at the start, staying flexible with your directional bias is absolutely critical at this key market juncture.

I also covered a full recap of market price action from last weekend up to now. I gave a detailed breakdown of exactly where you could have entered a short position during that sharp drop in gold prices today. The test trade is still open. That wraps up today's gold analysis for now.