Watch on YouTube ↗| Resistance | 4,657 |
|---|---|
| Support | 4,510 |
Gold posted a sharp bearish reversal after a $104 intraday rally, now testing key levels. Daniel breaks down whether price can reclaim 4,657 resistance or slides toward 4,510 support. The daily candle structure points to either a breakout above yesterday's high or a bearish continuation that deepens the sideways range. Watch these two levels closely heading into the next session.
Ref: 2026-05-01-xauusd-001-en
Hello, I'm Daniel, a professional prop trader with eight years of experience. I run the FX community, TradingLab, aiming to help beginners earn through trading. Please see the description of this video for more details.
Today, I'll be discussing the technical analysis of gold, incorporating some of the content shared within the community. Currently, it's in a sideways trend. As usual, I'll start with a short-term perspective.
Today, I'm considering a bearish outlook. This is because the previous day saw a clean upward trend as per the scenario, and the price has fallen below the recent low today. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bearish, and the short-term outlook is bearish.
I've already provided an analysis to the community members, and as expected, it's currently continuing to fall. Recently, I also provided an analysis to the community members regarding this point, and it appears to have found a temporary support at a key price level, showing a slight pause on the five-minute chart. We'll be watching to see how the one-hour chart develops from here.
Now, as usual, I'll provide a detailed analysis starting from the daily chart. Yesterday, the daily chart for gold closed as a large bearish candle. My scenario for yesterday involved two possibilities.
One was that it had broken out downwards from the current sideways range. Then, first, this I was looking to see if the follow-through movement would continue after the downward breakout of the sideways range. One scenario was a large bearish candle forming and the rate dropping significantly.
Another bearish scenario was a candle forming with almost no wick, similar to a doji, with the closing price close to the low. For a bullish scenario, I mentioned the possibility of a rebound today, as the daily level had reached a key price. Creating a deceptive move and at least retesting the upper range was also a possibility.
In conclusion, yesterday's daily chart formed a rebound. The bullish scenario materialized. For today's daily chart, the first scenario I anticipated was a breakout of yesterday's high.
I believe the sooner this happens, the better. When the price breaks above yesterday's high, I expect more long positions to be initiated. This is likely to create a sharp upward trend in the short term.
Conversely, the bearish scenario is if today's daily candle's real body is formed in a way that at least cancels out more than fifty percent of yesterday's real body. If this happens, it would mean the bearish scenario has come true. If this bearish scenario plays out, the downward bias is likely to strengthen.
However, there was a strong bullish candle recently, and an extremely long lower wick is noticeable here. Using this as the initial reference, and the second candle here, based on these two candles as reference, it's highly probable that it will transition into a sideways range. Therefore, the scenarios are either breaking out of yesterday's high and breaking out upwards, or closing with a large real body as a bearish candle and transitioning into a sideways range.
These are the two possibilities I'm considering. That concludes the daily chart analysis. Now, let's move on to the hourly chart.
Yesterday, I informed the community members that the trend had clearly shifted to an uptrend. While breaking above the recent high signals an uptrend according to Dow theory, observing the smaller candlestick movements within the internal swings can indicate an earlier shift to an uptrend. I discussed this in detail.
The buy setup that was formed at the time of the broadcast was a clear pullback buy. I also mentioned this pullback buy setup to the community members. Consequently, as per the scenario, the price significantly broke through the high yesterday.
The rise from this setup's pullback to the recent high was one hundred and four dollars, or fourteen hundred and eighty-eight pips, achieved in about five hours. Thus, the scenario unfolded as expected. Today, the strategy for community members involves two possible approaches.
A strong uptrend has been followed by a clear short-term downtrend reversal. Furthermore, the daily level has reached a point of rebound, so we need to construct strategies with two perspectives. I explained the points for initiating sell trades and also regarding the points to consider for initiating long trades.
Additionally, as is customary, I provided a detailed explanation including the trading points from yesterday's market review. Yesterday's market review focused on the difference in price action after the uptrend reversal and the movement of the recent downtrend reversal. It was explained that not only the trend movement captured by simple wave patterns, but also the small movements of internal candlesticks can be used as hints to interpret the market's development.
I explained that the movement of the market can be interpreted not only through the overall trend patterns but also through the small movements of internal candlesticks, which can serve as hints. That concludes today's content regarding gold. That's all for today.