Gold at 4,108 or 4,054 first? Today's two scenarios | XAUUSD Nov 10

Hi, I'm Daniel, a currently active prop trader. For gold today, I'm leaning toward a bearish view. Since last time, as in our scenario, price saw a deep correction of 36 dollars, or 363 pips, then formed a bullish reversal candle, and then reversed, with a strong rally of 62 dollars, or 623 pips, clearly confirmed heading into the close of the New York session.

Right now, price is near the top of the daily range, but upside momentum is fading, so we should also watch for a reversal right after an upside breakout. The question is whether it breaks out above the range, or reverses and trades back inside it. That's the key point I focused on in today's gold analysis.

Let's jump right in and look closely at the daily chart. Alright, gold. On the daily chart, yesterday's candle 49 closed and confirmed as a big, strong bullish candle.

So price has now moved into the scenario where a sideways range forms, using candles 47 and 48 as the two reference candles that define its high and low boundaries, Candle 49 is a big, strong bullish candle, but its body still hasn't managed to break out above the high of candle 47. If we follow the basics of trading a range, the more likely scenario from here is a move down to test candle 48, which will probably act as the lower boundary of the range.

That said, if we look at candle 49 on its own, on the daily chart it closed as a candle with strong bullish momentum, so after this an upside breakout of the range is also definitely a real possibility. So, if price also breaks out above the high of candle 49 to the upside, we'd first confirm that breakout on the shorter timeframes, and then I'd consider a long entry on a breakout and pullback, or after waiting for a pullback. Next up, let's move down to the 1H chart now and take a closer look at gold's price action there.

So, this red line right here marks where the 1H chart was at the moment we did our last live stream exclusively for Trading Lab community members. Here on YouTube, I'll narrow it down and walk you through the key points of the scenarios and technical analysis I covered at that time, so let's continue with the breakdown. So the first key point: right now price is testing an upside breakout of the bear channel, but the short-term bias is still bearish on lower timeframes.

That's because this is the channel's first breakout, and the Tokyo session candles made a very steep, sharp move, so there's a high chance a deep retracement comes in right after this move. Also, this candle level here on the chart is where an FVG, that's a fair value gap, is being formed. It's very likely forming there, so on the 1H chart we'd treat that as a likely long entry point.

And from there, we're expecting the price to drop down to around the low it set earlier during the Tokyo session. On the other hand, if price reverses on a bullish reversal candle, we look to the high set in the Tokyo session, this series of Tokyo highs is right here, And the entire upswing sequence, including the Tokyo session high and the candle positions around it, we can treat this as a micro measuring gap, and that also helps us calculate the price range to target if we're aiming for the maximum upside move from here.

With all that in mind, I mentioned I wanted to switch over to a bullish bias. And since the previous stream, I've also been walking through the important price action that has unfolded on the gold chart. First off, let's look at what happened after the upswing continued all the way into bar 3 of the London session.

After that, price printed a bearish reversal bar, then as the New York session opened, it formed a downswing that ran all the way into the second bullish reversal bar. Back in the Tokyo session, around bar 5, price made a second attempt at that same high, clearly carving out an upswing like this one on the chart here, but After that, with no downside follow-through, the open printed a big bullish candle instead, sweeping out the stop loss orders of bears who had likely gone short at bars 3 and 7, and then it went on to show strong upside follow-through buying Then the Tokyo session kept its upswing going into the

high of candle 3, From candle 3 onward, though, we get a bearish reversal candle forming here, Candle 4 marked the end of the upside follow-through, and candle 5 then basically negated that bullish move, so In the short term, price formed a small sideways range. Then, at the time of the stream, price had broken out to the downside from this range, or from the doji candle that started it, so that's why I answered here that the very short-term bias was to the downside.

So in the end, how did gold move? Right in line with our scenario, a deep retracement played out. First, after a deep retracement of $36, or 363 pips, it formed a bullish reversal candle, just as expected, and then from there, the London session kept climbing, forming a clear uptrend with really strong bullish momentum.

and heading into the New York close, gold has rallied a solid 62 dollars, a full gain of 623 pips. In today's stream for Trading Lab members, I'm covering scenarios built on these three points, and walking through the technical analysis in detail. First, price sits near the daily range top, so watch for an upside breakout.

Second, upside momentum is weak, so beware a top reversal. Third, if price stalls even after breaking higher, we should expect a turn to the downside. Exactly which price action we watch to decide that the market's direction has really changed, I've already broken that down in full detail for our Trading Lab members.

From here, gold could realistically move either way, so the key is what criteria you'll use to flip between bullish and bearish, and deciding that in advance, before you enter any trade. That's all for today's gold analysis.