Gold hits its measured move — does the rebound fail or flip the trend? | XAUUSD Oct 30

Hi, I'm Daniel, a currently active prop trader. Today, my bias on gold is to the downside. Since the last video, gold held in a trading range throughout the whole day.

Then in today's Tokyo session, it broke out below the previous day's daily low and completed the pullback, and just as our scenario predicted, price dropped around 614 pips. Right now, price has reached the measured move on the daily chart, and we can also confirm an overshoot of the descending channel, so in the short term, we're expecting a rebound toward the previous day's daily low or the high set in the Tokyo session. So the key question is whether price rolls back into the downtrend after this rebound, or whether it shows strong bullish momentum and develops into a new uptrend.

That's exactly what today's analysis focused on. Alright, let's jump straight into the daily chart. Looking at gold, yesterday's daily candle closed as a bearish candle.

It closed by breaking out to the downside of the previous candle, which was a bullish doji, so basically we're in a situation where a bearish bias is more likely to take hold. Also, if we look at the overall flow, within the ongoing downtrend we saw a breakout from a time-based correction, then a bounce out of that time-based correction, and then a shift into a price-based correction. So it's shifted, and now that bullish doji is easier to treat as the rally high, the lower high in this downtrend.

So we're in a spot where downside follow-through is more likely to be confirmed, and on the daily chart, the bias has switched to bearish. Also, today's daily candle hasn't closed or been confirmed yet, but after breaking below the low of this doji, price came back to test the highs in what looks like a breakout pullback, then turned lower, so right now we can see clear follow-through to the downside. Also, as a short-term measured move, I think price here is likely to drop by the same range as this recent doji candle.

And in fact, price has already finished dropping by that full measured move, so on a very short-term basis, the daily chart also suggests a rebound is quite likely to happen from here. Next, let's take a look at the 1H chart. On the 1H chart, yesterday's Trading Lab community-only stream went out right at this red line, around the close of the second 1H candle after the London session open.

Now, let's narrow it down to a few key points and go over the technical analysis scenario I was explaining publicly on YouTube at that exact moment. First off, looking at the previous day, the market had absolutely no clear direction at all. At the time of this stream, the candlestick is forming a doji, and even on the downswing along the way, every candle fully overlaps, and with doji candles standing out so clearly, the market had by then completely lost any sense of direction.

So basically, the plan was to avoid any careless entries and steer clear of getting hit with one stop loss after another in that directionless market. And basically, what we're aiming for are clear reversals after failed breakouts, plus reactions at the daily high and the daily low. Wait for this breakout and the pullback after it, then consider entering.

And I also explained that right now, there's no real edge in forcing a directional bias and trading on it in the current market. And I've also walked through the price action step by step, showing the process that led me to this exact judgment. What I want you to focus on here are these two rebounds.

Here, price broke out above the long-running sideways range, then formed a small sideways range and reversed. Then it tested both the top and bottom here, broke out, completed the pullback, and started climbing higher, There was a second test as well, setting up another push higher, but that rally attempt ended up failing here. What matters is that even though the reversal off the second test had good odds of success, it failed to turn into a real, sustained rally higher.

Looking back, this also formed a classic three-push-up pattern here, though, In theory, price tends to drop to here, and it's actually done falling now. If we follow how price moved in the downswing after that, Once this outside bar was completed here, the market lost its sense of direction entirely. In effect, a sideways range then formed, with these two candles serving as the reference bars, Near the upper edge, a bearish doji formed, then price reversed and moved to test the range's lower boundary.

As I said earlier, the candles along the way all overlap, so this isn't a market environment moving with a clear sense of direction. Take a move like this, for example: when the candles barely overlap, we can read it as a one-directional swing, but with this downswing here, each and every candle overlaps, so price is falling in a choppy way, lurching up and down.

What clinched it was the doji at stream time, neither bearish nor bullish, Even one candle like that counts as a sideways range, so the market then lost all direction, Day after day, I kept saying wait for a breakout and a breakout pullback at the daily high or low before entering, And right over here, I believe this level marked the low of the daily candle. So how did gold move after the last stream? Yesterday, it stayed in a trading range the whole day, continuing through both the London and New York sessions, and just as our scenario expected, the choppy trading range held.

Then in Tokyo today, it firmly tested yesterday's key level, completing a breakout pullback, and price has dropped $61, or 614 pips, down to the recent low, moving exactly in line with our expected scenario. In real trading, I think knowing when to stay out and not trade is as important as entering, and I go over this point in more detail inside the Trading Lab community. So today, in the content exclusive to our community, I break down the scenario and technical analysis around these 3 key points.

First point: the daily chart is bearish, but after this drop, watch for a short-term rebound. Second point: in the London session, watch whether price can reclaim the recent key level. Third: based on the bounce's strength, we'll judge if the decline resumes or reverses higher.

So today's key point, as expected, will really be how we assess the momentum. Lately, as I shared first with our Trading Lab members, candle 2 has printed a bullish rebound, so the key question is whether the next candles can carry that same momentum forward, so the follow-through after this is really important, and I want to see how it unfolds from here. That's all for today's gold analysis.