Gold at range lows — bounce to 4,673 or breakdown below 4,582? | XAUUSD Aug 27

Hi everyone, Daniel here, an active prop trader. Short term, gold is looking bullish today. Last time I called it bearish, and just as planned, the downtrend continued after that video.

From the high at broadcast down to the low printed at the New York session open, we saw a drop of around 665 pips. Also, price overshot the $4600 level I'd flagged as a key pivot on the daily range, then momentum clearly stalled and we got a sideways range. At the Tokyo session open we saw a gap up, but the magnet effect pulled it back inside the daily range, so that reversal is confirmed too.

On this rally, since we're still moving inside the daily range, stay fully alert for a downside breakout of that level flipping us back to a bearish bias, and that's the focus of today's breakdown. Alright, let's dive straight in and break down the daily chart in detail as always. On the daily chart, gold closed the previous day with a large bearish candle.

As for the daily scenario I mentioned in the last video, this is roughly how it's playing out now. The most recent candle formed a bullish doji, and since price is still trading within it, we're inside a sideways range. As for the daily direction, I explained it generally gets decided by whichever way this doji breaks out.

On the other hand, this bullish doji has printed both a higher low and a higher high relative to the prior candle, and it closed bullish. So I was explaining that from this rising line, the power balance still remains tilted in the bulls' favor for now. So what should we take from this?

Yes, we're in a corrective phase, but I was explaining that it looks more likely to resolve through time correction rather than price correction, and that ultimately the odds favor an upside breakout above this candle 4 high. Now for yesterday's daily candle, as I just mentioned, it closed as a large bearish candle. That said, this doesn't really look like a candle that confirmed a successful downside breakout below the doji just before it.

The breakout range was extremely weak, so for now, I'm basically not treating this candle as a genuine breakout candle at all. Also, if we follow the usual rhythm you see in a sideways range, yesterday's daily candle was really just a test of the lower bound, so from here I think the more likely scenario is a move back up to test the upper bound. On the other hand, if the London and New York opens show the bears clearly taking control, we're already close to breaking that lower bound, so it'd be easy to sweep the stop losses of the bulls who bought in the Tokyo session, which raises the odds of real downside follow-through from here.

So around here, I really want to stay cautious about the price action at each session changeover, given how much it can shift. Next let's move to the 1H chart, where yesterday I sent out an update to our community members right around this red line, just as that bearish doji candle was forming. Here on YouTube, I want to walk you through exactly what I was explaining to our community members, focusing on this area and narrowing it down to a few key points.

Right now, we're looking at the most recent buy setup on gold here. Price is now testing that key level, the reversal low with the big bullish candle, the exact zone where longs most likely got positioned, so watch it closely here. If price breaks down through here, it naturally sweeps the stop-loss orders those longs placed, dragging price lower and keeping the bearish bias firmly intact.

And on top of that, recent highs keep stepping lower, so we're now in a clear downtrend. That said, on the bigger picture we're still inside a trading range between 4600 and 4700 dollars, and that's the range width on the daily chart. Because we're sitting inside that range, direction is weak, so rather than holding positions long, I'd want to wrap trades up quickly on the short side.

So personally, this is a situation where I'd stick to day-trade timeframes or shorter for how I position. Now the next point. On the other hand, let's also think about a bullish scenario.

If price breaks out to the downside after this, and then fails to hold that break below the level where the earlier buy entry point was, and instead reverses back up from there, that's the setup to watch for here. If price can reclaim strong upward momentum right here, that's when we'd flip our bias over to the bullish side. The reason is we're near the lower boundary of the daily range, so an upside breakout of that daily doji is very possible from here, but as a rule, don't jump to calling it a trend too early.

These trend-reversal signals are exactly the concrete techniques I've walked through again and again inside our community. These are the exact points you should base your call on. We also review the whole thought process behind this call inside our community.

The key point here is that after price action pivoting around this doji, we get a sideways range, and even though a breakout attempt fails here, that sideways range still develops. After that we get a downside breakout failure, and this failed break to the downside usually means the upper boundary gets tested again, but instead we get a reversal right here. The first upward swing forms right here at this point.

If you track the price action after that, there's a breakout pullback, and a second upward swing forms. That leads into a clear bearish reversal, and the price starts working to push the highs lower. After that, price probes the recent low and prints a bearish doji right there, so when you trace this whole sequence of price action, it tells a clear story.

It tried to reverse, but couldn't push higher and never reached this key level up here. With two upward swings already completed, it made perfect sense to lean bearish here and treat the broader bias as pointing to the downside. So with all that context in mind, let's see how gold actually played out yesterday.

After the stream, it kept the 1H downtrend going, right in line with our bias. We got a clean move, lows steadily grinding lower. Counting from the high at broadcast time down to the low printed at the New York session open, we've dropped 66 dollars, or roughly 665 pips, moving exactly as our scenario laid out.

And that New York session low printed just below the 4600 dollar level we'd pencilled in as the range floor, overshooting it slightly before turning. After that overshoot, price stabilized into a sideways range, and the Tokyo open gapped back up inside it, confirming that classic magnet pull toward the range. From the downtrend continuation all the way to the rebound point, price played out exactly as our scenario laid out.

So overall this was a fairly clear, easy-to-read move. Today, in the community-only stream, as always I'm walking through both the bullish and bearish scenarios, breaking each one down across these three key points. First point: my bias stays bullish, and I expect price to test the top of the daily range.

Second point: since price is rising toward the top of the range, the path is hard to read and entries get tricky. I'm also walking you through the exact entry points here. Third point: a clean break of the recent pullback flips us bearish.

But if that breakout fails, we flip bullish again, so I've laid out clear criteria for switching bias. Right now, gold is retesting the low of the point where that recent buy setup formed on the chart. That wraps up today's gold update.