Gold at 4,141 pullback — buy the dip to 4,076 or push to 4,166? | XAUUSD Jul 23

Hi everyone, this is Daniel, active prop trader. Short term, gold is leaning bearish today. That said, I see this pullback as just a correction within the broader uptrend, so once it wraps up I'll be looking to get long again on the next opportunity.

Just as I laid out in the community last time, price shifted into a correction on the short-term view, then formed a base and rallied about 594 pips, playing out exactly as the scenario called for. Right now, after breaking down out of the recent blue channel, price also broke below the sideways range, and at this point we're seeing clear follow-through to the downside. Given this breakout move, I walked through exactly which points to watch for considering a long entry, and if we flip our bias, which levels to watch for setting up a short instead.

So let's dive right into the daily chart in detail. Yesterday's daily candle on gold closed as expected, but notice it finished with weaker momentum compared to the previous daily candle we looked at. Counting from this candle here, we've had four straight days of gains, and I'd been treating the recent upside swing as confirmed.

From that upside swing, the expected move points to around here, roughly the 4200 dollar area, so when I weigh out that target, since there isn't much room left to that target, opening a fresh long right here off the daily chart really doesn't offer any real edge at this point, in my view. And this is another run of consecutive thrust-up candles off that low, so if you read it as a single rising swing, you could argue we still haven't entered a real corrective phase yet.

On the daily chart, even if price does reach that 4200 level, I'd say it feels more natural to see a proper corrective phase play out before then. Now let's drop the timeframe down and look at the 1H chart. Yesterday's community-only stream landed right as this red bearish candle closed here.

Here on YouTube, I want to walk through a few key points from what I was explaining in that stream at this exact moment. First, let's talk directional bias. As for yesterday, on the daily chart price broke out clearly and decisively above that key level.

With this strong uptrend as the backdrop, my main view was that we should basically be looking for pullback buying opportunities. Let me walk you through the whole process on the 1H chart that led me to that call. The first thing that jumps out here is this sharp price pullback.

This price correction can also be seen as a retest of the line that had been acting as the upper boundary of the recent rising wedge. Looking closely at this whole downswing, the candles mostly overlap, so the bearish momentum here really isn't strong at all. In that context, we get what looks like a reversal candle, and here at this awkward level it then touches a bearish doji.

So this sideways range here has a pretty high chance of breaking out to the upside from this point. This upside swing here had really strong momentum. The downside swings here never showed strong momentum.

With that backdrop, I figured an upside breakout would be able to run pretty easily from here. And sure enough, price then broke out to the upside, and right after that we got what you could basically read as four near-identical doji-like candles, which points to a shift into a sideways range. I focused on the two inside bars that followed and walked through them.

These two inside bars can be read as a failed reversal driven by the bear wave. Against that long-wicked prior candle, this bearish candle reverses and clearly lowers the high. But the low hasn't been lowered yet, so we still need to correctly gauge whether downside follow-through actually develops here.

Some bearish-wave traders likely jumped in early here. The next candle showed very weak downside follow-through, then got cancelled out by the next four candles. So the traders who went short right here naturally had their stop loss orders triggered and filled.

And that triggers a wave of buy orders, which becomes one of the key factors driving the rally that follows here. After price actually retested that entry point, it flipped strongly again, and you can clearly see a powerful upside follow-through developing right afterward. About three hours before the stream, a clear reversal candle formed, with downside follow-through on the very next bar.

A four-bar outside bar formed here. Given the flow up to this point, you'd normally expect price to keep pushing higher, making higher highs comfortably. That expected push didn't happen.

Instead, at broadcast time we already had a candle breaking down through this outside bar to the downside. I explained we'd likely enter a short-term correction phase after this. On the other hand, we printed a clear reversal candle, yet the bullish momentum here stayed very strong.

Even if a trend reversal comes from here, we'd still need a second test first. So a dip and recovery could mean either a correction phase or another attempt to test the highs above. Bears, bulls, and the consensus should all line up here.

So on this failed downside breakout of the sideways range, you can comfortably go long. At the latest, you could've placed a stop-entry above this outside bar's high and scalped it on the 5-minute chart. It moved exactly like this, and looking back afterward, right after the broadcast that pullback phase came in, just as expected.

After that push higher, exactly as the scenario laid out, price rallied a full $59 range, that's 594 pips to the upside. In today's breakdown for our community members, we look at the recent bull channel breaking lower and now entering a corrective phase. Using this sideways range as our reference, I'll walk through both the bullish and bearish scenarios in detail, plus the exact entry criteria for each setup.

Short-term I'm leaning bearish today, but against the bigger uptrend, if a clean pullback-buying chance shows up, I'll actively look to get long from there. That wraps up today's broadcast.